The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 upward to 3.0%, showing cautious optimism amid easing trade tensions. However, this positive adjustment comes with serious caveats. In its latest global outlook, the IMF warned that rising protectionist policies, especially from the United States, could create lasting distortions in global supply chains.
The U.S. administration’s aggressive stance on import tariffs—particularly targeting China and select European goods—is viewed as a potential “negative supply shock” that could increase inflation and reduce long-term growth. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas emphasized that if global trade becomes fragmented, it could undermine productivity gains and hit developing nations the hardest.
Another concern raised was political interference in central banking, particularly in major economies like the U.S. and UK, where electoral pressures are mounting on central banks to cut interest rates prematurely. The IMF strongly underscored the importance of central bank independence to ensure monetary policy remains effective and credible.
Meanwhile, stock markets showed mixed reactions—optimism about growth was offset by fears of inflation and trade disruption.
 has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 upward to 3.0%, showing cautious optimism amid easing trade tensions. However, this positive adjustment comes with serious caveats. In its latest global outlook, the IMF warned that rising protectionist policies, especially from the United States, could create lasting distortions in global supply chains.){kind=link}